Disease Risk Analysis

This disease risk analysis calculates the incremental risk of permanent injury or death from vaccine-preventable diseases if a parent theoretically decided to delay a child’s vaccines until age 5. To make a full comparison of disease risks for that child, the incremental risk is calculated for two cases:  1) a high-vaccinated population in which most other children are vaccinated such that herd immunity provides some protection for the unvaccinated, and 2) a low-vaccinated population in which enough children are unvaccinated that there is no herd immunity and thus a greater risk of the disease (see SmartVax Discussion on Herd Immunity). To be able to perform the analysis, several assumptions were made as to how to calculate incremental risk (see Assumptions for Weigh The Risks Analysis).

Note: SmartVax does not promote a view that no child should be vaccinated.  The SmartVax disease risk analysis was performed for the purpose of demonstrating that if vaccines contribute to autism, then the current vaccine-injury risks could be numerically much higher than even the worse-case disease risks.  This finding highlights the need for comprehensive, unbiased research into how vaccines could contribute to autism.

This “Disease Risks in Low-Vaccinated Population Compared to Autism Risk” table demonstrates that the risk of autism is much higher than the incremental risk of injury or death from diseases if a child is not vaccinated until age 5 in a low-vaccinated population:


This “Disease Risks in a High-Vaccinated Population” table includes the analysis of incremental disease risk in a highly-vaccinated population, in which there is some protection benefit from herd immunity.


Links to the Disease Risk analysis for these vaccine-preventable diseases:

Disease Risk – Hepatitis B Disease Risk – Pertussis Disease Risk – Hepatitis A
Disease Risk – Polio Disease Risk – Hib Disease Risk – Measles
Disease Risk – Rotavirus Disease Risk – Pneumococcal disease Disease Risk – Mumps
Disease Risk – Diphtheria Disease Risk – Influenza Disease Risk – Rubella
Disease Risk – Tetanus Disease Risk – Varicella